Brent Hit $109.86. What It Means for Inflation.

Prices as of the dates shown. The Brent figure is the Oct 16 settle.

This video is scheduled for the Future Macro YouTube channel at 5:30 PM ET on Oct 21. Until it’s up, the button opens the channel.

What the video covers

Brent crude settled at $109.86 on Friday, Oct 16, its highest close since May 19. In September's inflation report, gasoline alone made up over half of the monthly increase.

The video follows that barrel from supply to your budget to the Fed. Two supply stories moved oil the same week: less crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters, citing Kpler) and Ukraine's strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery. Diesel took the bigger hit. Distillate stocks rose last week, but they're still thin going into heating season.

A rate move can't lower an oil price set by Hormuz risk and refinery outages. Sticky energy inflation does leave the Fed less room to wait.

The numbers

• $109.86 Brent settle on Fri Oct 16, 2026, the highest close since May 19 (Dow Jones Market Data). It touched $110 during the day (Reuters).
• +$1.26 per gallon regular gas vs a year earlier: $4.30 on Oct 19 vs $3.04 (AAA). That works out to about $19 more for a 15-gallon fill-up (our arithmetic).
• $6.32 per gallon diesel on Oct 19, under the record $6.53 set Sept 22 and up from $3.63 a year earlier (AAA).
• +1.7M barrels U.S. distillate stocks in the week ended Oct 16, to 104.3M, about 9.7% below a year earlier (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Oct 21).
• 3.7% CPI inflation in September vs a year earlier, with energy up 20.4%. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and made up over half of the monthly increase (BLS, released Oct 14).
• +3.0% average hourly pay vs a year earlier in September (BLS Employment Situation). After inflation, real hourly pay was −0.7% (BLS Real Earnings).
• Oct 27–28 next Fed meeting. Statement at 2:00 PM ET on Oct 28 (Federal Reserve).

Chapters

1. 0:00 Brent closed at $109.86 on Oct 16
2. 0:36 How close to $110 it really is
3. 1:21 Two reasons oil jumped
4. 2:50 Why diesel hurts more
5. 4:01 Where oil shows up in inflation
6. 5:16 What the Fed can and can't fix
7. 6:17 What to watch next

Sources

• Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar: Brent settles at $109.86Brent and WTI settles, Oct 16, 2026
• Reuters via Euronext: Oil touches $110 a barrel for the first time since MayOct 16, 2026
• Reuters via Euronext: Oil slips from 5-month highOct 19, 2026. Includes Kpler tanker data on Gulf crude flows
• Reuters via Investing.com: Hormuz transits at lowest in over two monthsKpler data, early October 2026
• Reuters via Investing.com: Ukraine hits Russian refineryRyazan refinery; cites Financial Times interview. Oct 15, 2026
• Al Jazeera: Russia says Ukraine resumes attacks on oil refineriesOct 15, 2026
• AAA Daily Fuel GaugeRegular and diesel national averages, Oct 19, 2026
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly Petroleum Status ReportWeek ended Oct 16, 2026, released Oct 21
• Reuters via EnergyNow: U.S. crude and distillate stocks fall, EIA saysWeek ended Oct 9, 2026
• EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update: weekly U.S. on-highway dieselWeekly survey, released Oct 20, 2026
• BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026Released Oct 14, 2026
• BLS Employment Situation, September 2026Released Oct 2, 2026
• BLS Real Earnings, September 2026Released Oct 14, 2026
• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendarOct 27-28, 2026 meeting
• Federal Reserve: Gov. Christopher Waller speechOct 8, 2026
• Federal Reserve: Chair Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole remarksAug 28, 2026